Post by New Orleans GM on Mar 30, 2012 20:48:37 GMT -6
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
I think this year will be the last of the Phils impressive run of division titles. Age is catching up to the Phillies very quickly. Pitching will keep them afloat until Ryan Howard comes back from his injury, and they will have a chance to reach the playoffs for the 6th straight year. The Phillies maintain their solid core with Carlos Ruiz, Hunter Pence, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins. Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry Jr. will be capable replacements for Howard until he can return. The Philly rotation is second to none with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, and Papelbon closing. The Phils might repeat as East champs in 2012, but problems lay ahead for the Phillies franchise.
Key Additions: Util Ty Wigginton, RP Jonathan Papelbon
Key Losses: LF Raul Ibanez, RP Ryan Madson
Strength: Pitching
From the first inning to the ninth, the Phillies pitching is exceptionally strong. The top three of the rotation have 3 Cy Young’s, and a World series MVP. Halladay, Hamels, and Lee are three of the best pitchers in the league and the all are on the same staff. Joe Blanton and Vance Worley will round out the rotation, and they would be welcomed on almost every pitching staff in the bigs. The bullpen is full of guys like Jose Contreras, and Chad Qualls who have proven to be quality relief arms, but the real improvement came with the signing of Jonathan Papelbon. No offense to Ryan Madsen or Brad Lidge who both did a fine job closing games, but Papelbon is as good of a closer as anybody in the game. Having pitched in high stress situations his whole career, and I think the addition of Pap puts the Phils over the top in the East once again.
Weakness: Age
All of the sudden I looked up and the Phils got old. This isn’t the same team that was so feared in 2008 or 2009. The only two position player starters under 30 for the 2012 Phillies will be Hunter Pence and John Mayberry Jr. Victorino is 31, Howard is 32, Utley, Ruiz and J-Smooth are 33, Placido Polanco is 36, and Jim Thome is 41. On the pitching side age shouldn’t factor in as much, but Lee and Halladay are both in their mid-thirties, and Jose Contreras is listed at 40, but he is from Cuba so that means he’s probably like 47. The Phillies run of postseason appearances will be coming to an end soon due to their rapidly increasing age.
Fantasy MVP: Hunter Pence
Playing in Houston, Pence was criminally underrated for most of his career. Being in Philly with plenty of protection and runners on base, he is in a position to have a career altering experience much like Jason Werth a few years ago. He gets on base, scores runs, knocks them in and occasionally hits some out of the park. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, but I think a full year in Philly will make this guy a star.
Plus his wife is smoking hot.
Player To Watch: LF/1B John Mayberry Jr.
I have my eye on the production Cole Hamels will put up in his walk year, but I think the Phils season will depend heavily on the production of John Mayberry Jr. With Howard’s injury the first base position will have to be filled by some combination of Mayberry, Wigginton, and Thome. Mayberry will have to step up and provide a high level production with Howard’s absence. With limited time last season he managed to bang out 15 bombs and got on base at a .341 clip. Mayberry could be one of the big surprises of the 2012 season.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: B
Pitching: A
Intangibles: A-
Farm System: C
Best Case Scenario: Howard comes back healthy, Utley resolves his mysterious injury, Father Time stays away for another year.
Worst Case: Howard and Utley don’t come back for a few months, down year for the pitching staff, injury to Pence or Rollins
Final Prediction: The pitching is strong enough to hold off the Braves and Nats for one more year.
Lineup According to Me:
1. SS Jimmy Rollins
2. 3B Placido Polanco
3. RF Hunter Pence
4. 1B John Mayberry Jr./ Ryan Howard/Ty Wigginton
5. 2B Chase Utley
6. CF Shane Victorino
7. LF John Mayberry Jr./ Lance Nix
8. C Carlos Ruiz
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Cole Hamels
4. Vance Worley
5. Joe Blanton
Key Relievers:
Chad Qualls
Antonio Bastardo
Jose Contreras
Closer:
Jonathan Papelbon
Pictures:
2. * Atlanta Braves
The Braves collapse of 2011 was absolutely epic. Up on the Cardinals by 8 and a half games on September 6th, Atlanta somehow managed to miss the playoffs. Instead of imploding the roster and making desperation moves, the Atlanta front office choose to remain mostly intact and allow their young roster to learn from the experience moving forward. The only significant move the Braves made was to move the aging Derek Lowe to Cleveland. Moving forward the Braves will bring back one of the best rotations in baseball, and a roster full of young players. Atlanta will be in the hunt for a wild card spot, and looking ahead they will be one of the favorites in the East for years to come.
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: SP Derek Lowe, SS Alex Gonzalez
Strength: Starting Rotation
The bullpen is very strong with Venters, and Kimbrel, but no team has the depth in the rotation that Atlanta has. Brandon Beachy has absolutely disgusting stuff, Jair Jurrjens gets the jobs done every time he takes the mound, and Tommy Hanson will be a devastating ace if he stays healthy. Tim Hudson had offseason surgery, but he will be back at full strength in May. And then there is the excess of talented young arms. Mike Minor, Julio Terehan, and Randall Delgado give the Braves three talented young pitchers fighting for one spot. It is a great problem to have.
Weakness: Confidence
It is hard to project how the late season collapse will impact the 2012 version of the Braves. Atlanta made the decision to stay the course and bring back virtually the same roster as last season. If the Braves can find a way to learn from their mistakes of 2011 they may have the best roster in the East. They bring back a talented young lineup and a pitching staff full of dynamic young arms, so they may have a shot at challenging the Phillies for the division title.
Fantasy MVP: C Brian McCann
Catcher is a very hard position to project from year to year, and the talent level is usually very thin. However, Brian McCann is a close to a sure thing that exists behind the plate. Often time’s fantasy owners will have to settle for catchers that hit in the low .200’s that may have above average power. McCann not only hits for average and power, he is also the most reliable player in the Braves lineup. He is almost guaranteed to hit above .270 with 20+ homers.
Player To Watch: RF Jason Heyward
Heyward had a terrific 2010 season, but injuries slowed his development to a crawl. He followed up his fantastic rookie campaign with a horrendous performance in 2011. His second season saw him knock in 30 fewer runs, and he hit 50 points lower. There is no doubt he has all the athletic tools to become a major star in Atlanta, but he needs to stay healthy and continue his development. I expect a big bounce back year for Heyward.
Report Card:
Offense: B
Defense: B
Pitching: A
Intangibles: B
Farm System: A
Best Case Scenario: Staying with the same group pays off, young players learn from 2011 mistakes
Worst Case: Young pitchers struggle, Uggla hits like he did in the first half of 2011, Heyward doesn’t progress
Final Prediction: The Braves hang with the Phillies the whole season and make the playoffs, but they just miss winning the NL East.
Lineup According to Me:
1. CF Michael Bourn
2. LF Martin Prado
3. C Brain McCann
4. RF Jason Heyward
5. 2B Dan Uggla
6. 1B Freddie Freeman
7. 3B Chipper Jones
8. SS Tyler Pastornicky/ Andrelton Simmons
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Tim Hudson
4. Brandon Beachy
5. Mike Minor/ Julio Terehan/ Randall Delgado
Key Relievers:
Kris Medlen
Eric O’Flaherty
Jonny Venters
Closer:
Craig Kimbrel
Pictures:
3. Washington Nationals
The Nationals are threatening play .500 baseball in the nation’s capital for the first time since Ted Williams was managing the Senators in 1969. No team with the exception of maybe the Royals and Rays have developed home grown talent as well as the Nats. The hard work put in by the front office is finally beginning to pay off at the major league level. Ryan Zimmerman is an all-star when he is healthy, and the middle of the field, with Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos will be solid for years to come. The influx of young talent has finally put the Nationals in a situation where they could think about winning now and not sometime in the future. This allowed them to go out and make the rotation even stronger for the 2012 season. Gio Gonzalez is a fantastic young arm, and Edwin Jackson rounds out the rotation nicely. Combine them with Steven Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmerman (who would be an ace on almost any staff), and the Nats have a nasty staff, up and coming lineup, and Drew Storen closing games; the Nats will be solid for years to come.
Key Additions: SP Gio Gonzalez, SP Edwin Jackson
Key Losses: SP Livan Hernandez, RP Todd Coffey
Strength: Pitching
If everybody stays healthy these guys will be filthy. Everybody knows what Strasburg is capable of, but guys like Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman fly under the radar. When combined with Edwin Jackson, and John Lannan, it gives the Nats a fantastic starting rotation that has the potential to surprise people. Even after the starter leaves, Washington will continue to bring in above average pitching. Sean Burnett is a quality mid inning reliever, and then the ball will be handed to Brad Lidge, and Tyler Clippard in the setup role. In the ninth it doesn’t get much better than Drew Storen. I can speak from personal experience when I say Storen’s stuff is straight filthy. From the first inning until the end of the game, the Nats will put forth good pitching.
Weakness: Experience
Much like the Royals, the Nats are in a position that they haven’t been in for quite some time. In the next few years this franchise will see its best team since the days of Larry Walker, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, John Wetteland, Cliff Floyd, and Marquis Grissom. The problem is that few of these guys have competed in a playoff race. It may take a year or two of gaining experience before they are ready to compete for the long term.
Fantasy MVP: 1B Mike Morse
This is a tough one. Ryan Zimmerman is fantastic but he is always hurt. Mike Morse put up ridiculous numbers last year, but his performances before 2011 were pathetic. I think Morse may have a chance to join the ranks of Jose Bautista, as a guy who figured out how to hit far too late in his career. His batting average may take a hit this season, but I think the power numbers are here to stay. Morse will be 30 at the start of the season, and he has a history of injuries, but I think he has finally found a home in Washington.
Player To Watch: SP Stephen Strasburg
This is another difficult decision. For my money the Nationals are the team to watch in 2012. Jordan Zimmerman is at full strength in his second year off Tommy John, Gio Gonzalez’s move to the NL might make him an All-Star, Bryce Harper will probably join the team in May, but the real story will be Strasburg. Strasburg is an intimidating figure on the mound, and some guys get even better after having Tommy John. The Nats say they will limit him to around 170 innings, but I’m interested to see what they will do if they are in the race. If Strasburg is back to the dominating stuff before the surgery Washington may compete for the East crown.
I did see something that concerns me. Al Leiter pointed out on MLB Network that Strasburg didn't change his mechanics at all. When I look at his mechanics they remind me an awful lot of Mark Prior when he pronates his shoulders. Just something to keep an eye on.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: B+
Pitching: A-
Intangibles: B
Farm System: B+
Best Case Scenario: Morse repeats 2011, Strasburg is 100% healthy, Harper contributes right away, Storen’s spring arm issues are minor
Worst Case: Strasburg gets hurt again, Zimmerman gets his usual May or June season ending injury
Final Prediction: The Nationals pitching will keep them in most games as they stay in the race most of the year before fading late.
Pictures:
4. Miami Marlins
Quite a few people have big expectations for the Marlins in 2012, but I don’t see it. I don’t think you can put explosive personalities like Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano, and Hanley Ramirez under one roof and expect everything to work out. Add into the equation that the owner once fired the manager of the year because they didn’t like each other, and he hates Logan Morrison, and I see an implosion coming. No doubt that the Marlins brought in talent this offseason, but chemistry plays a bigger role than people think.
Key Additions: SS Jose Reyes, RP Heath Bell, SP Carlos Zambrano, SP Mark Buehrle
Key Losses: SP Chris Volstad, SP Javier Vazquez
Strength: Starting Rotation
The Marlins will have a pretty solid rotation on paper in 2012. Josh Johnson is one of the best in the bigs when he is healthy. When he is on the mound he completely dominates the opposing lineup. Bringing in Mark Buehrle is a nice move to provide a proven and consistent veteran to a young team. Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco are great 3 and 4 pitchers. But the real question will be Carlos Zambrano. As a Cubs fan I always though “Big Z” got a bit of a raw deal, but there is no doubt he is emotional and explosive. Without the pressure of the expectation of carrying a staff, and pitching for his friend Ozzie Guillen he may have found the best situation for himself.
Weakness: Team Chemistry
This thing is a powder keg. This 2012 Marlins team has the ability to one of the most spectacular dysfunctional teams of all time. Despite what he says Hanley Ramirez has no interest in playing third. Carlos Zambrano has beat the shit out of coolers on multiple occasions, and has fought his own teammates. Lo Mo can’t keep his mouth shut on Twitter, and owner Jeffrey Loria hates it. Throw Ozzie Guillen in the middle of the mess and light a match. Fireworks are coming.
Fantasy MVP: RF Giancarlo Stanton
Hanley is talented but his temper tantrums have effects on his performance. Jose Reyes is exciting, but he is too fragile. Gaby Sanchez has the chance to be a really good player in the near future, but the artist formerly known as Mike Stanton has jaw dropping potential. Stanton already has a 30 home run season and he just turned 22. This guy is as good a power hitter as there is in the majors, and he hasn’t even begun to reach his potential. As he continues to develop I think he will improve his plate discipline and average, and he will be very scary. If he stays healthy for the rest of his career, he may go down as the best power hitter of this generation.
Player To Watch: CP Heath Bell
This whole team will be fun to watch win or lose, but Bell may have the biggest impact on the outcome of the season. The rotation is good enough to win a lot of games, and if Bell is as good in Miami as he was in San Diego, the Marlins may not need to score all that many runs to compete. It will remain to be seen if Bell is a product of Petco Park, or if he truly possesses the talent to be a shutdown closer.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: A-
Pitching: B+
Intangibles: C-
Farm System: D+
Best Case Scenario: This crazy experiment actually works, Ozzie Guillen somehow manages to keep control
Worst Case: Hanley throw a bitch fit, Reyes gets hurt, Johnson misses significant time again, Ozzie flips his shit
Final Prediction: The recent trend of bringing in big names to win a championship in Miami fails again as the volatile roster implodes.
Lineup according to Me:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. CF Emilio Bonafacio
3. 3B Hanley Ramirez
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Gaby Sanchez
6. LF Logan Morrison
7. C John Buck
8. 2B Omar Infante
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Josh Johnson
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Carlos Zambrano
Key Relievers:
Edward Mujica
Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez)
Closer:
Heath Bell
Pictures:
5. New York Mets
To put it simply the Mets have seen better days. After Bernie Madoff’s name was connected to the Mets, keeping their top players has been a challenge. 2012 will be another rough year in Queens, but they do have some nice prospects making their way towards the big leagues. For now they will have to hope moving in the fences at Citi Field will bring back the Jason Bay and David Wright of old, and hope the pitching staff can keep their heads above water. Having Johan Santana return is huge, but the Mets need big years from Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada to fill out the lineup, and R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, and Jon Niese need to keep them in games.
Key Additions: CF Andres Torres, RP Frank Francisco
Key Losses: SS Jose Reyes, CF Angel Pagan
Strength: Starting Rotation…I guess
Some of the Mets players aren’t all that terrible, and the starting rotation has the ability to be passable. If Johan Santana is close to what he once was he can still be a very good pitcher. Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese are good some times, and very bad at other times. R.A. Dickey is now the only knuckleballer in the major left after Tim Wakefield retired and he has developed into a serviceable option at the back end of the rotation. Dillon Gee is not going to inspire the highest confidence in his ability, but at home he is pretty good, and he is young enough that he may develop into a quality starter. The Mets will get some help when their two top prospects arrive in the Big Apple. Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey are the future of the Mets rotation.
Weakness: Health
The Metropolitans have some fine players, but their most important pieces can’t seem to stay on the field. Jason Bay has struggled immensely since moving to New York. He has only played in about half of the games in his two seasons. Ike Davis is a great talent, but he only played 36 games in 2011, and no he has Valley Fever. Apparently despite its name, Valley Fever can be pretty serious, and it cost Conor Jackson 132 games in 2009. Santana hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2010, but he seems healthy for now. Most important to the Mets chances would be David Wright. Wright was once one of the most promising young stars in the game, but injuries and poor performances have made relying on him a less than favorable position. The Mets big stars will need to be healthy if they want any hope of putting together a positive season.
Fantasy MVP: 1B Ike Davis
Davis had a great season as a rookie and I think he will bounce back after missing most of 2011. He was having a fantastic year in 2011 hitting over .300 and hit 7 homers before missing the rest of the season. With a full healthy season Davis has the power and plate discipline to be among the league leaders. All of his production will be dependent on his ability to stay healthy, but when he’s on the field he is very good.
Player To Watch: SP Johan Santana
It was just a few years ago that Santana was the best pitcher in the majors. Injuries have cost him some time, but I think he still has enough talent to remake himself into a quality pitcher again. He turns 33 before the season starts which will give him plenty of years left to turn his career back around. I think Santana is probably done blowing hitters away, but he is smart enough and has good enough stuff to still be an effective pitcher. If he can return to form it will give the Mets some valuable trade bait.
Report Card:
Offense: B-
Defense: C+
Pitching: B-
Intangibles: C
Farm System: A-
Best Case Scenario: Wright Davis Bay and Santana play like they are capable, Duda has another good year
Worst Case: They play like the 2011 Mets.
Final Prediction: The Mets will be better in 2012, but the whole division around them got much better.
Lineup According to Me:
1. CF Andres Torres
2. 2B Daniel Murphy
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. RF Lucas Duda
6. LF Jason Bay
7. C Josh Thole
8. SS Ruben Tejada
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jon Niese
3. R.A. Dickey
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Dillon Gee
Key Relievers:
Tim Byrdak
Jon Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Closer:
Frank Francisco
Pictures:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
I think this year will be the last of the Phils impressive run of division titles. Age is catching up to the Phillies very quickly. Pitching will keep them afloat until Ryan Howard comes back from his injury, and they will have a chance to reach the playoffs for the 6th straight year. The Phillies maintain their solid core with Carlos Ruiz, Hunter Pence, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins. Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry Jr. will be capable replacements for Howard until he can return. The Philly rotation is second to none with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, and Papelbon closing. The Phils might repeat as East champs in 2012, but problems lay ahead for the Phillies franchise.
Key Additions: Util Ty Wigginton, RP Jonathan Papelbon
Key Losses: LF Raul Ibanez, RP Ryan Madson
Strength: Pitching
From the first inning to the ninth, the Phillies pitching is exceptionally strong. The top three of the rotation have 3 Cy Young’s, and a World series MVP. Halladay, Hamels, and Lee are three of the best pitchers in the league and the all are on the same staff. Joe Blanton and Vance Worley will round out the rotation, and they would be welcomed on almost every pitching staff in the bigs. The bullpen is full of guys like Jose Contreras, and Chad Qualls who have proven to be quality relief arms, but the real improvement came with the signing of Jonathan Papelbon. No offense to Ryan Madsen or Brad Lidge who both did a fine job closing games, but Papelbon is as good of a closer as anybody in the game. Having pitched in high stress situations his whole career, and I think the addition of Pap puts the Phils over the top in the East once again.
Weakness: Age
All of the sudden I looked up and the Phils got old. This isn’t the same team that was so feared in 2008 or 2009. The only two position player starters under 30 for the 2012 Phillies will be Hunter Pence and John Mayberry Jr. Victorino is 31, Howard is 32, Utley, Ruiz and J-Smooth are 33, Placido Polanco is 36, and Jim Thome is 41. On the pitching side age shouldn’t factor in as much, but Lee and Halladay are both in their mid-thirties, and Jose Contreras is listed at 40, but he is from Cuba so that means he’s probably like 47. The Phillies run of postseason appearances will be coming to an end soon due to their rapidly increasing age.
Fantasy MVP: Hunter Pence
Playing in Houston, Pence was criminally underrated for most of his career. Being in Philly with plenty of protection and runners on base, he is in a position to have a career altering experience much like Jason Werth a few years ago. He gets on base, scores runs, knocks them in and occasionally hits some out of the park. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, but I think a full year in Philly will make this guy a star.
Plus his wife is smoking hot.
Player To Watch: LF/1B John Mayberry Jr.
I have my eye on the production Cole Hamels will put up in his walk year, but I think the Phils season will depend heavily on the production of John Mayberry Jr. With Howard’s injury the first base position will have to be filled by some combination of Mayberry, Wigginton, and Thome. Mayberry will have to step up and provide a high level production with Howard’s absence. With limited time last season he managed to bang out 15 bombs and got on base at a .341 clip. Mayberry could be one of the big surprises of the 2012 season.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: B
Pitching: A
Intangibles: A-
Farm System: C
Best Case Scenario: Howard comes back healthy, Utley resolves his mysterious injury, Father Time stays away for another year.
Worst Case: Howard and Utley don’t come back for a few months, down year for the pitching staff, injury to Pence or Rollins
Final Prediction: The pitching is strong enough to hold off the Braves and Nats for one more year.
Lineup According to Me:
1. SS Jimmy Rollins
2. 3B Placido Polanco
3. RF Hunter Pence
4. 1B John Mayberry Jr./ Ryan Howard/Ty Wigginton
5. 2B Chase Utley
6. CF Shane Victorino
7. LF John Mayberry Jr./ Lance Nix
8. C Carlos Ruiz
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Cole Hamels
4. Vance Worley
5. Joe Blanton
Key Relievers:
Chad Qualls
Antonio Bastardo
Jose Contreras
Closer:
Jonathan Papelbon
Pictures:
2. * Atlanta Braves
The Braves collapse of 2011 was absolutely epic. Up on the Cardinals by 8 and a half games on September 6th, Atlanta somehow managed to miss the playoffs. Instead of imploding the roster and making desperation moves, the Atlanta front office choose to remain mostly intact and allow their young roster to learn from the experience moving forward. The only significant move the Braves made was to move the aging Derek Lowe to Cleveland. Moving forward the Braves will bring back one of the best rotations in baseball, and a roster full of young players. Atlanta will be in the hunt for a wild card spot, and looking ahead they will be one of the favorites in the East for years to come.
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: SP Derek Lowe, SS Alex Gonzalez
Strength: Starting Rotation
The bullpen is very strong with Venters, and Kimbrel, but no team has the depth in the rotation that Atlanta has. Brandon Beachy has absolutely disgusting stuff, Jair Jurrjens gets the jobs done every time he takes the mound, and Tommy Hanson will be a devastating ace if he stays healthy. Tim Hudson had offseason surgery, but he will be back at full strength in May. And then there is the excess of talented young arms. Mike Minor, Julio Terehan, and Randall Delgado give the Braves three talented young pitchers fighting for one spot. It is a great problem to have.
Weakness: Confidence
It is hard to project how the late season collapse will impact the 2012 version of the Braves. Atlanta made the decision to stay the course and bring back virtually the same roster as last season. If the Braves can find a way to learn from their mistakes of 2011 they may have the best roster in the East. They bring back a talented young lineup and a pitching staff full of dynamic young arms, so they may have a shot at challenging the Phillies for the division title.
Fantasy MVP: C Brian McCann
Catcher is a very hard position to project from year to year, and the talent level is usually very thin. However, Brian McCann is a close to a sure thing that exists behind the plate. Often time’s fantasy owners will have to settle for catchers that hit in the low .200’s that may have above average power. McCann not only hits for average and power, he is also the most reliable player in the Braves lineup. He is almost guaranteed to hit above .270 with 20+ homers.
Player To Watch: RF Jason Heyward
Heyward had a terrific 2010 season, but injuries slowed his development to a crawl. He followed up his fantastic rookie campaign with a horrendous performance in 2011. His second season saw him knock in 30 fewer runs, and he hit 50 points lower. There is no doubt he has all the athletic tools to become a major star in Atlanta, but he needs to stay healthy and continue his development. I expect a big bounce back year for Heyward.
Report Card:
Offense: B
Defense: B
Pitching: A
Intangibles: B
Farm System: A
Best Case Scenario: Staying with the same group pays off, young players learn from 2011 mistakes
Worst Case: Young pitchers struggle, Uggla hits like he did in the first half of 2011, Heyward doesn’t progress
Final Prediction: The Braves hang with the Phillies the whole season and make the playoffs, but they just miss winning the NL East.
Lineup According to Me:
1. CF Michael Bourn
2. LF Martin Prado
3. C Brain McCann
4. RF Jason Heyward
5. 2B Dan Uggla
6. 1B Freddie Freeman
7. 3B Chipper Jones
8. SS Tyler Pastornicky/ Andrelton Simmons
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Tim Hudson
4. Brandon Beachy
5. Mike Minor/ Julio Terehan/ Randall Delgado
Key Relievers:
Kris Medlen
Eric O’Flaherty
Jonny Venters
Closer:
Craig Kimbrel
Pictures:
3. Washington Nationals
The Nationals are threatening play .500 baseball in the nation’s capital for the first time since Ted Williams was managing the Senators in 1969. No team with the exception of maybe the Royals and Rays have developed home grown talent as well as the Nats. The hard work put in by the front office is finally beginning to pay off at the major league level. Ryan Zimmerman is an all-star when he is healthy, and the middle of the field, with Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos will be solid for years to come. The influx of young talent has finally put the Nationals in a situation where they could think about winning now and not sometime in the future. This allowed them to go out and make the rotation even stronger for the 2012 season. Gio Gonzalez is a fantastic young arm, and Edwin Jackson rounds out the rotation nicely. Combine them with Steven Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmerman (who would be an ace on almost any staff), and the Nats have a nasty staff, up and coming lineup, and Drew Storen closing games; the Nats will be solid for years to come.
Key Additions: SP Gio Gonzalez, SP Edwin Jackson
Key Losses: SP Livan Hernandez, RP Todd Coffey
Strength: Pitching
If everybody stays healthy these guys will be filthy. Everybody knows what Strasburg is capable of, but guys like Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman fly under the radar. When combined with Edwin Jackson, and John Lannan, it gives the Nats a fantastic starting rotation that has the potential to surprise people. Even after the starter leaves, Washington will continue to bring in above average pitching. Sean Burnett is a quality mid inning reliever, and then the ball will be handed to Brad Lidge, and Tyler Clippard in the setup role. In the ninth it doesn’t get much better than Drew Storen. I can speak from personal experience when I say Storen’s stuff is straight filthy. From the first inning until the end of the game, the Nats will put forth good pitching.
Weakness: Experience
Much like the Royals, the Nats are in a position that they haven’t been in for quite some time. In the next few years this franchise will see its best team since the days of Larry Walker, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, John Wetteland, Cliff Floyd, and Marquis Grissom. The problem is that few of these guys have competed in a playoff race. It may take a year or two of gaining experience before they are ready to compete for the long term.
Fantasy MVP: 1B Mike Morse
This is a tough one. Ryan Zimmerman is fantastic but he is always hurt. Mike Morse put up ridiculous numbers last year, but his performances before 2011 were pathetic. I think Morse may have a chance to join the ranks of Jose Bautista, as a guy who figured out how to hit far too late in his career. His batting average may take a hit this season, but I think the power numbers are here to stay. Morse will be 30 at the start of the season, and he has a history of injuries, but I think he has finally found a home in Washington.
Player To Watch: SP Stephen Strasburg
This is another difficult decision. For my money the Nationals are the team to watch in 2012. Jordan Zimmerman is at full strength in his second year off Tommy John, Gio Gonzalez’s move to the NL might make him an All-Star, Bryce Harper will probably join the team in May, but the real story will be Strasburg. Strasburg is an intimidating figure on the mound, and some guys get even better after having Tommy John. The Nats say they will limit him to around 170 innings, but I’m interested to see what they will do if they are in the race. If Strasburg is back to the dominating stuff before the surgery Washington may compete for the East crown.
I did see something that concerns me. Al Leiter pointed out on MLB Network that Strasburg didn't change his mechanics at all. When I look at his mechanics they remind me an awful lot of Mark Prior when he pronates his shoulders. Just something to keep an eye on.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: B+
Pitching: A-
Intangibles: B
Farm System: B+
Best Case Scenario: Morse repeats 2011, Strasburg is 100% healthy, Harper contributes right away, Storen’s spring arm issues are minor
Worst Case: Strasburg gets hurt again, Zimmerman gets his usual May or June season ending injury
Final Prediction: The Nationals pitching will keep them in most games as they stay in the race most of the year before fading late.
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4. Miami Marlins
Quite a few people have big expectations for the Marlins in 2012, but I don’t see it. I don’t think you can put explosive personalities like Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano, and Hanley Ramirez under one roof and expect everything to work out. Add into the equation that the owner once fired the manager of the year because they didn’t like each other, and he hates Logan Morrison, and I see an implosion coming. No doubt that the Marlins brought in talent this offseason, but chemistry plays a bigger role than people think.
Key Additions: SS Jose Reyes, RP Heath Bell, SP Carlos Zambrano, SP Mark Buehrle
Key Losses: SP Chris Volstad, SP Javier Vazquez
Strength: Starting Rotation
The Marlins will have a pretty solid rotation on paper in 2012. Josh Johnson is one of the best in the bigs when he is healthy. When he is on the mound he completely dominates the opposing lineup. Bringing in Mark Buehrle is a nice move to provide a proven and consistent veteran to a young team. Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco are great 3 and 4 pitchers. But the real question will be Carlos Zambrano. As a Cubs fan I always though “Big Z” got a bit of a raw deal, but there is no doubt he is emotional and explosive. Without the pressure of the expectation of carrying a staff, and pitching for his friend Ozzie Guillen he may have found the best situation for himself.
Weakness: Team Chemistry
This thing is a powder keg. This 2012 Marlins team has the ability to one of the most spectacular dysfunctional teams of all time. Despite what he says Hanley Ramirez has no interest in playing third. Carlos Zambrano has beat the shit out of coolers on multiple occasions, and has fought his own teammates. Lo Mo can’t keep his mouth shut on Twitter, and owner Jeffrey Loria hates it. Throw Ozzie Guillen in the middle of the mess and light a match. Fireworks are coming.
Fantasy MVP: RF Giancarlo Stanton
Hanley is talented but his temper tantrums have effects on his performance. Jose Reyes is exciting, but he is too fragile. Gaby Sanchez has the chance to be a really good player in the near future, but the artist formerly known as Mike Stanton has jaw dropping potential. Stanton already has a 30 home run season and he just turned 22. This guy is as good a power hitter as there is in the majors, and he hasn’t even begun to reach his potential. As he continues to develop I think he will improve his plate discipline and average, and he will be very scary. If he stays healthy for the rest of his career, he may go down as the best power hitter of this generation.
Player To Watch: CP Heath Bell
This whole team will be fun to watch win or lose, but Bell may have the biggest impact on the outcome of the season. The rotation is good enough to win a lot of games, and if Bell is as good in Miami as he was in San Diego, the Marlins may not need to score all that many runs to compete. It will remain to be seen if Bell is a product of Petco Park, or if he truly possesses the talent to be a shutdown closer.
Report Card:
Offense: B+
Defense: A-
Pitching: B+
Intangibles: C-
Farm System: D+
Best Case Scenario: This crazy experiment actually works, Ozzie Guillen somehow manages to keep control
Worst Case: Hanley throw a bitch fit, Reyes gets hurt, Johnson misses significant time again, Ozzie flips his shit
Final Prediction: The recent trend of bringing in big names to win a championship in Miami fails again as the volatile roster implodes.
Lineup according to Me:
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. CF Emilio Bonafacio
3. 3B Hanley Ramirez
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Gaby Sanchez
6. LF Logan Morrison
7. C John Buck
8. 2B Omar Infante
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Josh Johnson
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Carlos Zambrano
Key Relievers:
Edward Mujica
Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez)
Closer:
Heath Bell
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5. New York Mets
To put it simply the Mets have seen better days. After Bernie Madoff’s name was connected to the Mets, keeping their top players has been a challenge. 2012 will be another rough year in Queens, but they do have some nice prospects making their way towards the big leagues. For now they will have to hope moving in the fences at Citi Field will bring back the Jason Bay and David Wright of old, and hope the pitching staff can keep their heads above water. Having Johan Santana return is huge, but the Mets need big years from Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada to fill out the lineup, and R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, and Jon Niese need to keep them in games.
Key Additions: CF Andres Torres, RP Frank Francisco
Key Losses: SS Jose Reyes, CF Angel Pagan
Strength: Starting Rotation…I guess
Some of the Mets players aren’t all that terrible, and the starting rotation has the ability to be passable. If Johan Santana is close to what he once was he can still be a very good pitcher. Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese are good some times, and very bad at other times. R.A. Dickey is now the only knuckleballer in the major left after Tim Wakefield retired and he has developed into a serviceable option at the back end of the rotation. Dillon Gee is not going to inspire the highest confidence in his ability, but at home he is pretty good, and he is young enough that he may develop into a quality starter. The Mets will get some help when their two top prospects arrive in the Big Apple. Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey are the future of the Mets rotation.
Weakness: Health
The Metropolitans have some fine players, but their most important pieces can’t seem to stay on the field. Jason Bay has struggled immensely since moving to New York. He has only played in about half of the games in his two seasons. Ike Davis is a great talent, but he only played 36 games in 2011, and no he has Valley Fever. Apparently despite its name, Valley Fever can be pretty serious, and it cost Conor Jackson 132 games in 2009. Santana hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2010, but he seems healthy for now. Most important to the Mets chances would be David Wright. Wright was once one of the most promising young stars in the game, but injuries and poor performances have made relying on him a less than favorable position. The Mets big stars will need to be healthy if they want any hope of putting together a positive season.
Fantasy MVP: 1B Ike Davis
Davis had a great season as a rookie and I think he will bounce back after missing most of 2011. He was having a fantastic year in 2011 hitting over .300 and hit 7 homers before missing the rest of the season. With a full healthy season Davis has the power and plate discipline to be among the league leaders. All of his production will be dependent on his ability to stay healthy, but when he’s on the field he is very good.
Player To Watch: SP Johan Santana
It was just a few years ago that Santana was the best pitcher in the majors. Injuries have cost him some time, but I think he still has enough talent to remake himself into a quality pitcher again. He turns 33 before the season starts which will give him plenty of years left to turn his career back around. I think Santana is probably done blowing hitters away, but he is smart enough and has good enough stuff to still be an effective pitcher. If he can return to form it will give the Mets some valuable trade bait.
Report Card:
Offense: B-
Defense: C+
Pitching: B-
Intangibles: C
Farm System: A-
Best Case Scenario: Wright Davis Bay and Santana play like they are capable, Duda has another good year
Worst Case: They play like the 2011 Mets.
Final Prediction: The Mets will be better in 2012, but the whole division around them got much better.
Lineup According to Me:
1. CF Andres Torres
2. 2B Daniel Murphy
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. RF Lucas Duda
6. LF Jason Bay
7. C Josh Thole
8. SS Ruben Tejada
9. P
Starting Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jon Niese
3. R.A. Dickey
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Dillon Gee
Key Relievers:
Tim Byrdak
Jon Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Closer:
Frank Francisco
Pictures: